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I've been out of control for 2 years, spending an average of 7154,85€ / month...
Yes, this is the day. My accountant made the calculations for 2019 income and corporate tax. It's 37580,39€ combined which i have to pay at the end of feb 2021. I was shocked, to say the least. My business is doing well, so i will have no problem paying that, but that really got me thinking, i need to get frugal NOW! So here are my expenses, which i never displayed like this before: 2020 expenses This shit is not sustainable (it is, but i hate to pay taxes and wasting money like this) and i will cut back pretty hard this year.
....a little background... I started selling stuff online mid 2014 and got to 1Mil gross/year in 2017 netting around 12-15%. I was young (31 lol) and stupid, so i bought 2 cars, expensive ones, 0% loans at least(wow i'm so smart).... Fast forward, i now pay 7154,85€ every month to keep this useless bimbo lifestyle which ich absolutely HATE looking at these numbers... I do prepay some incometax but it is not nearly enough, so i anticipate to pay 2k/month on top of this for the next year starting March 2021
As you can clearly see, i did and am doing all the mistakes a douchbag can do
buying cars.
pissing money away on Amazon.
buying the most expensive gas for your car because it can only use that...
Takeout at least 4-5 times a Month.
Saving money where you should not save, on food.
taking private loans for even more useless stuff.
I hate myself so much right now, seeing all the money drained which could have doubled my income when used the right way, i'm in tears... I did trade a lot of forex in 2010 to 2012, of course loosing money on the way, one thing i learned tho was to use a stop loss, which will cancel any open trade when reaching a certain value. So i'm pulling the stop loss on my spending right now, as i can't take it anymore.
I will be living in my office by the end of this year, bringing Rent, Internet and Netflix from around 1000€/month to ZERO.
One car will be paid in full on feb 2021, will sell it immediately using the money to pay of the private loan, bringing the private loan from 1000€/month to ZERO.
cutting back on Amazon, charging the amazon account with only 100€/Month, saving at least 500€/month.
No more fucking MCD and BK! I'm fat as hell....saving 127€/month.
Driving only when necessary. I hope to get it down to around 100€ / month. Gas is so expensive, i'm from germany, you know, it's expensive as hell....
I will not be paying using cash money anymore, as i can't trace it later...
This measures will free up around 3500€/month at least, which will go to tax prepayment and the other car loan. Oh boy, writing this down has done so much for me the last hour, i will go even further, cutting everything i can. Can you believe that the isurance for my car is 1000€/year? lol, hear's to having a 300 hp car. New tires are ~850€. I'm fucking done with all this, the only thing i will spend more on is my body and mind, healthier food, sports. I can't wait. Thank you for reading, if you did. Hope you don't make the same mistakes i do/did.
It's been acrazy few months (78 days to be exact) since I resurrected my Forex journey. Through the ups and downs, I've discovered a unique trading approach that works specifically for me. In doing so I reached out to my mentor, who has been monitoring my progress, about how I can take my game to the next level. He suggested that I pursue the route of getting funded and being able to trade Forex with a much larger balance since I've found a winning strategy that works for me. Needless to say, I started researching prop firms under his guidance and today I was officially approved to trade/manage a $50k account. This is a huge deal for me and I've come a long way since first learning how to trade Forex back in the summer of 2015. Due to the strict details of my contract with the firm I will stop engaging in posts and discussions regarding Forex trading as it could be a breach of my contract. The best part about this is I only ever made trades based on my own analysis/conclusion anyway, so this will be super easy. I'm excited to see where this goes. I'm going to devote the rest of the year to successfully trading and building up the account now under my management. If I'm still on Reddit I may just become more active in my hobbies like luxury watch trading, sports card collecting, and sports betting. Other than that, I'm done with the trading sub-reddits. For the handful of traders that I've been in constant contact with, feel free to DM me for my contact details outside of reddit. I wish you all the best of luck in the markets. BK
Торговая компания HourSoftBank - банальный HYIP, который не платит
Торговая компания HourSoftBank - банальный HYIP, который не платит - развод или правда. Честный отзыв от Baxov.Net Хотите выгодно вложить деньги и ищете надёжную финансовую площадку онлайн? Смотрите в сторону форекса, акций и полезных ископаемых? В интернете полно всякого рода проектов, руководители которых обещают скорый заработок. К сожалению, большинство ресурсов мошеннические. Какие-то схемы развода на деньги сложные, какие-то совсем примитивные. Например, проект HourSoftBank – это совсем простенький лохотрон. Тем не менее множество людей попало в сети мошенников. Но обо всём по порядку. E-mail адреса проекта [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Внимание! мошенники очень часто меняют адреса своих лохотронов. Поэтому название, адрес сайта или email может быть другим! Если Вы не нашли в списке нужный адрес, но лохотрон очень похож на описанный, пожалуйста свяжитесь с нами или напишите об этом в комментариях! Информация о проекте Сайт англоязычный, перевод везде мой. Начнём с легенды. В шапке сайта можно прочитать: Страхование вашего будущего пассивного заработка Минимальный депозит всего 5 долларов. Зарабатывайте почасовую и мгновенную оплату. Стабильный и быстрый заработок. Бесплатный бонус за регистрацию в $ 0,05 BTC Стартовый капитал: 8 миллионов долларов. Сильный промоутер команды. Гарантированный возврат в любое время. Сразу становится понятным, что мы имеем дело с очередным HYIP, то есть финансовой пирамидой. На странице «ABOUT US» можно прочитать легенду, подтверждающую моё первоначальное предположение: Зарабатывайте до 18% в час с торговой компанией HourSoftBank LTD Наша команда высококвалифицированных профессиональных трейдеров даст ВАМ огромное преимущество на ЛЮБОМ рынке. Мы используем различные стратегии ВЫИГРЫША для получения прибыли независимо от того, что испытывают другие инвесторы. В эти времена, когда рынки растут и падают, HourSoftBank предлагает проверенную платформу для получения большого дохода, торгуя как на медвежьем, так и на бычьем рынках. Мы торгуем широким спектром ценных материалов, включая нефть, металлы, золото, серебро и FOREX, а также криптовалюту. На самом деле всё выше перечисленное ложь. Ложью является и продолжение легенды: Наша система работает? Вы уверены, что это так. На данный момент мы получили возврат более 1000% на сумму более 200 МИЛЛИОНОВ долларов США. Теперь ЭТО богатство движет любым образом жизни или амбициями. Откуда такая сверхприбыль? Ниоткуда. Это голословные утверждения. Наша команда экспертов состоит из 5 опытных трейдеров с более чем десятилетним профессиональным опытом торговли. У всех нас есть собственные стратегии, и у нас есть большой опыт обучения им другим. Имена трейдеров не указаны. Не удивительно! Ведь аферисты это выдумали! От новичка до опытного инвестора, мы можем легко научить вас нашим методам выигрыша. Вам ЛЕГКО воспроизвести эти стратегии и получить прибыль от них. Практически с первого дня вы начинаете зарабатывать. Наши 6 инвестиционных планов могут принести вам до 18% в час. Хотите заработать еще больше? Это вполне возможно и часто достигается. Шарлатаны уверяют, что они работают легально. Якобы их фирма называется HOUR SOFT BK LIMITED. Она зарегистрирована в Великобритании под номером 12593565. Проверка показала, что фирма с таким названием существует. Вот только реестр юрлиц Туманного Альбиона находится в открытом доступе, поэтому присвоить информацию о чужой компании может любой жулик. Далее, указанная фирма была зарегистрирована 11 мая 2020 года. Сомневаюсь я, что за этот период коммерсанты заработали 1000% на сумму более 200 МИЛЛИОНОВ долларов США, как это написано в легенде. Ведь организации три месяца отроду! Теперь давайте посмотрим на финансовое предложение шарлатанов. Мошенники предлагают вложить в их лохотрон деньги на короткий срок. Условия такие: Standard 1.49%~2% Ежечасно на 70 часов Диапазон депозита: $ 5 - $ 1000 Реферальная комиссия: 3% Golden 5%~8% Ежечасно на 40 часов Диапазон депозита: $ 450-45000 Реферальная комиссия: 5% Ultimate 15%~18% Ежечасно на 20 часов Диапазон депозита: $ 4500-450000 Реферальная комиссия: 10% Manager 1.2% Ежедневно в течение 60 дней Диапазон депозита: $25-10000 Реферальная комиссия: 3% Goldman 110% Через 4 дня Диапазон депозита: $ 500–50000 Реферальная комиссия: 5% JP Morgan 6% Ежедневно в течение 20 дней Диапазон депозита: $ 50000–500000 Реферальная комиссия: 15% Как видите, тарифы разные. Участникам реферальной программы вкладывать свои собственные деньги в этот лохотрон не нужно. Для расчётов жулики используют электронные кошельки: BitCoin, Litcoin, Perfect Money, Payeer. То есть оформить возврат платежа нельзя. Общая статистика меня смущает отдельно. Ни о каких двухстах млн. речи не идёт. На сайте написано, что проект стартовал 18 мая 2020 года. По состоянию на день написания обзора общий депозит составил $ 30716026,7; было выведено $ 14416597,34 – в два раза меньше! Регистрация на проекте простенькая, но нужно согласиться с правилами. А в них есть типичный для лохотронов отказ от ответственности. Переведу вам самое главное: Вы инвестируете на свой страх и риск и соглашаетесь с тем, что прошлые результаты не являются явной гарантией таких же результатов в будущем. Вы соглашаетесь с тем, что вся информация, сообщения и материалы, которые вы найдете на этом сайте, должны рассматриваться как информационные и образовательные, а не как инвестиционные советы. Личный кабинет выглядит типично для хайпа. Контакты проекта Адрес: 10 Bevis Marks, London, England, EC3A 7LH – липа Данные по домену: hoursoftbank.com был зарегистрирован 25 марта 2020 года Имя собственника скрыто Разоблачение проекта Я уже писала, что HourSoftBank – это хайп-проект. А значит, что мы имеем дело с самой банальной финансовой пирамидой. Судя по тарифному плану, данный лохотрон недолговечный. Пусть вас не смущает, что жулики заявляют, что проект работает уже несколько месяцев. На самом деле хайп уже множество раз банкротился и возобновлял работу. Торговля на финансовых рынках – это легенда. В реальности HourSoftBank не ведёт экономической деятельности, а имитирует её. Все деньги, которые участники переводят на счета этой фейковой компании, оседают в карманах мошенников. Незначительное вознаграждение получают лишь активные участники реферальной программы. Также на кое-какую мизерную выплату могут рассчитывать некоторые вкладчики (но далеко не все). Не исключено, что раз или два жулики в качестве рекламы платежеспособности лохотрона произведут выплаты в рамках одного из тарифов, но по итогу вкладчик всё равно окажется в минусе. Если бы руководство HourSoftBank торговало на Форексе в реальности, у них была бы лицензия финансового регулятора Великобритании или любой другой страны мира. Её нет, а значит нет сомнений, что мы столкнулись с обманщиками. Но стоп! Не секрет, что админы многих финансовых пирамид вначале работы проекта платят по счетам в полном объёме! Счастливчики, сумевшие присоединиться на старте или при перезапуске лохотрона могут гипотетически заработать. Но и вновь спешу вас разочаровать. Если бы администрация этой финансовой пирамиды платила хотя бы вначале, была бы подробная таблица выплат. Её нет, а значит и выплат нет. Возможные потери на проекте Итого: калькуляция возможных потерь на проекте – любая сумма, выше 5 долларов. Вывод о проекте HourSoftBank – хайп-проект. Тратить на него время и деньги не стоит. У вас нет ни одного шанса, что ваш вклад окупится и принесёт прибыль. Поэтому проявите благоразумие и держитесь подальше от этого лохотрона. Уберегайте себя и капитал вместе с Baxov.Net https://www.baxov.net/reviews/torgovaya-kompaniya-hoursoftbank-banalnyy-hyip-kotoryy-ne-platit
The broker I use to trade Forex is Osprey FX. It's basically a secured virtual wallet on steroids that lets you trade currencies, metals, and indices using MT4. Fastest same-day deposits and withdrawals with Bitcoin in and Bitcoin out. I Love it! You don't need an arm and a leg to sign up, you can start as low as $100. Click here to getstarted: https://www.ospreyfx.com/?cmp=1f1e1a2s&refid=2693 -BK
Hey traders, just giving an update since I’ve been a bit quiet. I’m not even looking at the Forex market right now. Just feel axing and getting other things done. I will be back with a vengeance next week tho! 4 BIG opportunities to trade some good pairs. Stay tuned and I hope to not disappoint. -BK
In the previous article, we explained the premise of realizing the trading strategy from the aspects of the introduction of the M language , the basic grammar, the model execution method, and the model classification. In this article, we will continue the previous part, from the commonly used strategy modules and technologies. Indicators, step by step to help you achieve a viable intraday quantitative trading strategy.
Stage increase is calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference. For example: Computing the latest 10 K-lines stage increases, can be written: 1234
CLOSE_0:=CLOSE; //get the current K-line's closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_0. CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the pervious 10 K-lines' closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_10 (CLOSE_0-CLOSE_10)/CLOSE_10*100;//calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference.
New high price
The new high price is calculated by whether the current K line is greater than N cycles' highest price. For example: calculating whether the current K line is greater than the latest 10 K-lines' highest price, can be written: 12
HHV_10:=HHV(HIGH,10); //Get the highest price of latest 10 K-lines, which includes the current K-line. HIGH>REF(HHV_10,1); //Judge whether the current K-line's highest price is greater than pervious K-lines' HHV_10 value.
Price raise with massive trading volume increase
For example: If the current K line's closing price is 1.5 times of the closing price of the previous 10 K-lines, which means in 10 days, the price has risen 50%; and the trading volume also increased more than 5 times of the pervious 10 K-lines. can be written: 1234567
CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the 10th K-line closing price IS_CLOSE:=CLOSE/CLOSE_10>1.5; //Judging whether the current K Line closing price is 1.5 times greater than the value of CLOSE_10 VOL_MA_10:=MA(VOL,10); //get the latest 10 K-lines' average trading volume IS_VOL:=VOL>VOL_MA_10*5; //Judging whether the current K-line's trading volume is 5 times greater than the value of VOL_MA_10 IS_CLOSE AND IS_VOL; //Judging whether the condition of IS_CLOSE and IS_VOL are both true.
Price narrow-shock market
Narrow-shock market means that the price is maintained within a certain range in the recent period. For example: If the highest price in 10 cycles minus the lowest price in 10 cycles, the result divided by the current K-line's closing price is less than 0.05. can be written: 1234
HHV_10:=HHV(CLOSE,10); //Get the highest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) LLV_10:=LLV(CLOSE,10); //Get the lowest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) (HHV_10-LLV_10)/CLOSE<0.05; //Judging whether the difference between HHV_10 and LLV_10 divided by current k-line's closing price is less than 0.05.
Moving average indicates bull market
Moving Average indicates long and short direction, K line supported by or resisted by 5，10，20，30，60 moving average line, Moving average indicates bull market or bear market. can be written: 123456
MA_5:=MA(CLOSE,5); //get the moving average of 5 cycle closing price. MA_10:=MA(CLOSE,10);//get the moving average of 10 cycle closing price. MA_20:=MA(CLOSE,20);//get the moving average of 20 cycle closing price. MA_30:=MA(CLOSE,30);//get the moving average of 30 cycle closing price. MA_5>MA_10 AND MA_10>MA_20 AND MA_20>MA_30; //determine wether the MA_5 is greater than MA_10, and MA_10 is greater than MA_20, and MA_20 is greater than MA_30.
Previous high price and its locations
To obtain the location of the previous high price and its location, you can use FMZ Quant API directly. can be written: 123
HHV_20:=HHV(HIGH,20); //get the highest price of 20 cycle(including current K line) HHVBARS_20:=HHVBARS(HIGH,20); //get the number of cycles from the highest price in 20 cycles to current K line HHV_60_40:REF(HHV_20,40); //get the highest price between 60 cycles and 40 cycles.
Price gap jumping
The price gap is the case where the highest and lowest prices of the two K lines are not connected. It consists of two K lines, and the price gap is the reference price of the support and pressure points in the future price movement. When a price gap occurs, it can be assumed that an acceleration along the trend with original direction has begun. can be written: 12345678
HHV_1:=REF(H,1); //get the pervious K line's highest price LLV_1:=REF(L,1); //get the pervious K line's lowest price HH:=L>HHV_1; //judging wether the current K line's lowest price is greater than pervious K line's highest price (jump up) LL:=H1.001; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump up) LLL:=H/REF(L.1)<0.999; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump down) JUMP_UP:HH AND HHH; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump up JUMP_DOWN:LL AND LLL; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump down
Common technical indicators
Moving average https://preview.redd.it/np9qgn3ywxs41.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=39a401b5c9498a13d953678c0c452b3b8f6cbe2c From a statistical point of view, the moving average is the arithmetic average of the daily price, which is a trending price trajectory. The moving average system is a common technical tool used by most analysts. From a technical point of view, it is a factor that affects the psychological price of technical analysts. The decision-making factor of thinking trading is a good reference tool for technical analysts. The FMZ Quant tool supports many different types of moving averages, as shown below: 1234567
MA_DEMO:MA(CLOSE,5); // get the moving average of 5 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA(CLOSE,15); // get the smooth moving average of 15 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA2(CLOSE,10);// get the linear weighted moving average of 10 cycle MA_DEMO:EMAWH(CLOSE,50); // get the exponentially weighted moving average of 50 cycle MA_DEMO:DMA(CLOSE,100); // get the dynamic moving average of 100 cycle MA_DEMO:SMA(CLOSE,10,3); // get the fixed weight of 3 moving average of closing price in 10 cycle MA_DEMO:ADMA(CLOSE,9,2,30); // get the fast-line 2 and slow-line 30 Kaufman moving average of closing price in 9 cycle.
Bollinger Bands
https://preview.redd.it/mm0lkv00xxs41.png?width=1543&format=png&auto=webp&s=a87bdb4feecf97cbeef423b935860bfea85ffe6d Bollinger bands is also based on the statistical principle. The middle rail is calculated according to the N-day moving average, and the upper and lower rails are calculated according to the standard deviation. When the BOLL channel starts changing from wide to narrow, which means the price will gradually returns to the mean. When the BOLL channel is changing from narrow to wide, it means that the market will start to change. If the price is up cross the upper rail, it means that the buying power is enhanced. If the price down cross the lower rail, it indicates that the selling power is enhanced. Among all the technical indicators, Bollinger Bands calculation method is one of the most complicated, which introduces the concept of standard deviation in statistics, involving the middle trajectory ( MB ), the upper trajectory ( UP ) and the lower trajectory ( DN ). luckily, you don't have to know the calculation details, you can use it directly on FMZ Quant platform as follows: 1234
MID:MA(CLOSE,100); //calculating moving average of 100 cycle, call it Bollinger Bands middle trajectory TMP2:=STD(CLOSE,100); //calculating standard deviation of closing price of 100 cycle. TOP:MID+2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it upper trajectory BOTTOM:MID-2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it lower trajectory
MACD Indicator
https://preview.redd.it/9p3k7y42xxs41.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1b8078325fc142c1563a1cf1cc0f222a13e0bde The MACD indicator is a double smoothing operation using fast (short-term) and slow (long-term) moving averages and their aggregation and separation. The MACD developed according to the principle of moving averages removes the defect that the moving average frequently emits false signals, and also retains the effect of the other good aspect. Therefore, the MACD indicator has the trend and stability of the moving average. It was used to study the timing of buying and selling stocks and predicts stock price change. You can use it as follows:
DIFF:EMA(CLOSE,10)-EMA(CLOSE,50); //First calculating the difference between short-term moving average and long-term moving average. DEA:EMA(DIFF,10); //Then calculating average of the difference.
The above is the commonly used strategy module in the development of quantitative trading strategies. In addition, there are far more than that. Through the above module examples, you can also implement several trading modules that you use most frequently in subjective trading. The methods are the same. Next, we began to write a viable intraday trading strategy.
Strategy Writing
In the Forex spot market, there is a wellknown strategy called HANS123. Its logic are basically judging wether the price breaks through the highest or lowest price of the number of K lines after the market opening
Strategy logic
Ready to enter the market after 30 minutes of opening;
Upper rail = 30 minutes high after opening ;
Lower rail = 30 minutes low after opening ;
When the price breaks above the upper limit, buy and open the position;
When the price falls below the lower rail, the seller opens the position.
Intraday trading strategy, closing before closing;
Strategy code
12345678910111213
// Data Calculation Q:=BARSLAST(DATA<>REF(DATA,1))+1; //Calculating the number of period from the first K line of the current trading day to current k line, and assign the results to N HH:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,HHV(H,Q)); //when time is 9:30, get the highest price of N cycles, and assign the results to HH LL:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,LLV(L,Q)); //When time is 9:30, get the lowest price of N cycles, and assign the results to LL //Placing Orders TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C>HH,BK; //If the time is greater than 9:30 and lesser than 14:45, and the closing price is greater than HH, opening long position. TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C=1445,CLOSEOUT; //If the time is greater or equal to 14:45, close all position. //Filtering the signals AUTOFILTER; //opening the filtering the signals mechanism
To sum up
Above we have learned the concept of the strategy module. Through several commonly used strategy module cases, we had a general idea of the FMZ Quant programming tools, it can be said that learning to write strategy modules and improve programming logic thinking is a key step in advanced quantitative trading. Finally, we used the FMZ Quant tool to implement the trading strategy according a classical Forex trading strategy.
Next section notice
Maybe there are still some confusion for some people, mainly because of the coding part. Don't worry, we have already thought of that for you. On the FMZ Quant platform, there is another even easier programming tool for beginners. It is the visual programming, let's learn it soon!
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019
Hey what's happening wallstreetbets! Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty nicely in the market last week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019.
Some optimistic corporate outlooks in the week ahead could lift the stock market to a record - (Source)
It’s now up to corporate America to reveal whether the U.S. economy simply hit a soft patch this winter, as many suspect, or is on the verge of falling into an even deeper rut. Earnings from a broad swath of industries, like financials, technology, transportation and consumer products roll out in the coming week as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway. According to Refinitiv, earnings are expected to decline 2.3 percent in the first negative quarter in three years, but it is business leaders’ comments on the future outlook that are even more important. Commentary and guidance is always a big deal, but this quarter it is critical. Analysts do not agree on whether the first quarter earnings season represents the trough, or even whether the second quarter will see a gain or decline in profit growth. At the same time, economic data, like March’s jobs report, are beginning to turn more positive, and first quarter growth has quickly gone from forecasts of nearly flattish back in January to now around 2%, on the back of better March releases. The economic data has been uneven, in part because of the government shutdown, but it has yet to prove the economy is back on track. “The market has been very sensitive to data that’s been picking up. The market is reflecting that, even though there’s talk of an earnings recession. What you don’t want is an earnings recession leading to an economic recession. If companies believe there’s a major downturn in revenue growth, they stop spending and ultimately they fire people and that leads to a recession,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. The stock market is also at an important inflection point, with the major indexes closing in on all-time highs. The S&P 500 pressed through 2,900 Friday, seen as a point of psychological resistance. The S&P ended the week at 2,907, for a weekly gain of 0.5%. The next target traders are watching is the closing high 2,930 on the S&P. The all-time high was an intraday 2,940, reached on Sept. 21. Earnings season got off to a good start with J.P. Morgan Chase’s quarterly earnings report Friday. CEO Jamie Dimon was very positive, saying the U.S. economy’s expansion “could go on for years.” “If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shape, balance sheets are in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital,” Dimon told analysts during a conference call. J.P. Morgan stock rose sharply, after its record profits beat analysts’ expectations. “Positive guidance, that’s what the market needs. [The S&P] could cross 2,900, but then again it could pull back,” said Krosby, but she said the momentum has been pointing higher. “The market has basically been endorsing 2,900 and beyond.” Krosby said important upcoming economic reports include Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys Monday and Thursday respectively, for a current look at manufacturing activity in New York and the Mid-Atlantic region. There is also industrial production and retail sales Tuesday. “Jobs data was strong. Everybody was really negative on the economy, and now we’re getting pleasant surprises,” said Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist. The economy added 196,000 jobs in March, bringing the monthly average to 180,000 over the past three months, even with February’s shockingly low 33,000 payrolls. Chandler said industrial production and other data should show an improved trend over last month. As stocks have shaken off growth fears, bond yields have also moved higher. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 2.55% Friday, well above the lows of 2.34% reached on March 28.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Typical April Trading: Mid-Month Surge Stronger Second Half
Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA. April ranks #3 S&P 500, #5 for NASDAQ, #2 for Russell 1000 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.19% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.29% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is stronger over the recent 21-year period. Early April trading is usually positive for the first 4 days then flattens off until mid-month. Then the market tends to surge from the tenth to the fifteenth trading days. DJIA tends to close out the month strongest with NASDAQ closing weakest. Except for DJIA weighed down by Boeing (BA), stocks are having an above average month so far, which is quite typical in Pre-Election years where April has tended to be even stronger.
Earlier today on our Twitter account, we retweeted a chart from Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal of inverted Jobless Claims versus the S&P 500. We have used this chart as an argument for the bullish case for the past several years. As we mentioned in a blog post this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in earlier this week with a sizable drop off, down to 196K versus last week's revised 204K and expectations of 210K. This week's print was not only a new low for the current cycle, it is also the lowest reading since 1969. That sort of new low could be a good sign for equities. As shown in the chart below, claims and the S&P have mirrored each other since bottoming following the financial crisis. (In the chart, we have inverted claims on the right axis.) As the S&P 500 inches its way back towards all time highs, so has claims towards new lows. Additionally, with recent low prints for claims bucking what had previously appeared to be an upside trend reversal, the bullish case for the S&P 500 is growing.
The American Association of Individual Investors updated their weekly investor sentiment survey this morning and the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30's. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February. While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average). For that to happen, bullish sentiment would have to come in above 48.36%. If that occurs, then it could be a sign that investors are getting a little too optimistic.
Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade.
Neutral sentiment has still yet to have moved above or below the upper 30's coming in at 39.33% this week after falling from similar levels down to 36.71% last week. That is the third time in the past month that neutral sentiment has come in between 39% and 40%.
After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? We’ve already discussed why a good start to a year could lead to more gains (here and here), but today we will take a look at another potentially positive signal. The December Low Indicator was created in the 1970s by Lucien Hooper, a former Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst. Simply put, the indicator says that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the December low during the first quarter, it’s a warning sign for potential weakness over the balance of the year. The flipside is if it doesn’t, good times could be coming. Given the S&P 500 just went all of the first quarter without closing beneath the December 24 low, it’s worth taking a deeper dive. Sure enough, there appears to be some truth to this concept. “The December low indicator seems quite simple, but it has a tremendous track record,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When the S&P 500 stays above the December lows throughout the first quarter, the full year has been higher an incredible 34 out of the last 34 times, which bodes well for 2019.” In fact, this warning even worked last year, as it triggered in the first quarter of 2018 and eventually played out during the big fourth quarter sell-off. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, when the S&P 500 stays above the December lows in the first quarter, the full year does quite well.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.
Thursday 4.18.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.
Friday 4.19.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).
Friday 4.19.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).
Netflix, Inc. $351.14
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.56 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.94% with revenue increasing by 21.32%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% above its 200 day moving average of $336.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,925 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $23.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.84% with revenue decreasing by 14.11%. Short interest has decreased by 25.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $28.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 32,141 contracts of the $27.00 put and 32,059 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $18.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue decreasing by 22.15%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% above its 200 day moving average of $65.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 17,657 contracts of the $59.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:40 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.74 per share on revenue of $8.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.80% with revenue decreasing by 10.62%. Short interest has increased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $208.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,817 contracts of the $220.00 call and 5,555 contracts of the $195.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.59 per share on revenue of $59.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.09% with revenue increasing by 8.10%. Short interest has decreased by 1.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% below its 200 day moving average of $257.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,190 contracts of the $227.50 call and 3,732 contracts of the $227.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.46% with revenue decreasing by 1.89%. Short interest has decreased by 22.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.0% above its 200 day moving average of $134.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,510 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 1.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
Aphria Inc. (APHA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:05 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $41.11 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 26.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.1% from its open following the earnings release. On Thursday, April 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,595 contracts of the $9.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $14.84 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 88.16%. Short interest has decreased by 14.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.0% below its 200 day moving average of $2.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 27.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 12.59%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.8% below its 200 day moving average of $47.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $43.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
M&T Bank Corp (MTB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.29 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.90% with revenue decreasing by 2.65%. Short interest has decreased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% above its 200 day moving average of $165.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 841 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead? Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to everyone here on wallstreetbets!
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019
Hey what's happening StockMarket! Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty nicely in the market last week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019.
Some optimistic corporate outlooks in the week ahead could lift the stock market to a record - (Source)
It’s now up to corporate America to reveal whether the U.S. economy simply hit a soft patch this winter, as many suspect, or is on the verge of falling into an even deeper rut. Earnings from a broad swath of industries, like financials, technology, transportation and consumer products roll out in the coming week as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway. According to Refinitiv, earnings are expected to decline 2.3 percent in the first negative quarter in three years, but it is business leaders’ comments on the future outlook that are even more important. Commentary and guidance is always a big deal, but this quarter it is critical. Analysts do not agree on whether the first quarter earnings season represents the trough, or even whether the second quarter will see a gain or decline in profit growth. At the same time, economic data, like March’s jobs report, are beginning to turn more positive, and first quarter growth has quickly gone from forecasts of nearly flattish back in January to now around 2%, on the back of better March releases. The economic data has been uneven, in part because of the government shutdown, but it has yet to prove the economy is back on track. “The market has been very sensitive to data that’s been picking up. The market is reflecting that, even though there’s talk of an earnings recession. What you don’t want is an earnings recession leading to an economic recession. If companies believe there’s a major downturn in revenue growth, they stop spending and ultimately they fire people and that leads to a recession,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. The stock market is also at an important inflection point, with the major indexes closing in on all-time highs. The S&P 500 pressed through 2,900 Friday, seen as a point of psychological resistance. The S&P ended the week at 2,907, for a weekly gain of 0.5%. The next target traders are watching is the closing high 2,930 on the S&P. The all-time high was an intraday 2,940, reached on Sept. 21. Earnings season got off to a good start with J.P. Morgan Chase’s quarterly earnings report Friday. CEO Jamie Dimon was very positive, saying the U.S. economy’s expansion “could go on for years.” “If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shape, balance sheets are in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital,” Dimon told analysts during a conference call. J.P. Morgan stock rose sharply, after its record profits beat analysts’ expectations. “Positive guidance, that’s what the market needs. [The S&P] could cross 2,900, but then again it could pull back,” said Krosby, but she said the momentum has been pointing higher. “The market has basically been endorsing 2,900 and beyond.” Krosby said important upcoming economic reports include Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys Monday and Thursday respectively, for a current look at manufacturing activity in New York and the Mid-Atlantic region. There is also industrial production and retail sales Tuesday. “Jobs data was strong. Everybody was really negative on the economy, and now we’re getting pleasant surprises,” said Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist. The economy added 196,000 jobs in March, bringing the monthly average to 180,000 over the past three months, even with February’s shockingly low 33,000 payrolls. Chandler said industrial production and other data should show an improved trend over last month. As stocks have shaken off growth fears, bond yields have also moved higher. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 2.55% Friday, well above the lows of 2.34% reached on March 28.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Typical April Trading: Mid-Month Surge Stronger Second Half
Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA. April ranks #3 S&P 500, #5 for NASDAQ, #2 for Russell 1000 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.19% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.29% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is stronger over the recent 21-year period. Early April trading is usually positive for the first 4 days then flattens off until mid-month. Then the market tends to surge from the tenth to the fifteenth trading days. DJIA tends to close out the month strongest with NASDAQ closing weakest. Except for DJIA weighed down by Boeing (BA), stocks are having an above average month so far, which is quite typical in Pre-Election years where April has tended to be even stronger.
Earlier today on our Twitter account, we retweeted a chart from Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal of inverted Jobless Claims versus the S&P 500. We have used this chart as an argument for the bullish case for the past several years. As we mentioned in a blog post this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in earlier this week with a sizable drop off, down to 196K versus last week's revised 204K and expectations of 210K. This week's print was not only a new low for the current cycle, it is also the lowest reading since 1969. That sort of new low could be a good sign for equities. As shown in the chart below, claims and the S&P have mirrored each other since bottoming following the financial crisis. (In the chart, we have inverted claims on the right axis.) As the S&P 500 inches its way back towards all time highs, so has claims towards new lows. Additionally, with recent low prints for claims bucking what had previously appeared to be an upside trend reversal, the bullish case for the S&P 500 is growing.
The American Association of Individual Investors updated their weekly investor sentiment survey this morning and the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30's. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February. While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average). For that to happen, bullish sentiment would have to come in above 48.36%. If that occurs, then it could be a sign that investors are getting a little too optimistic.
Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade.
Neutral sentiment has still yet to have moved above or below the upper 30's coming in at 39.33% this week after falling from similar levels down to 36.71% last week. That is the third time in the past month that neutral sentiment has come in between 39% and 40%.
After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? We’ve already discussed why a good start to a year could lead to more gains (here and here), but today we will take a look at another potentially positive signal. The December Low Indicator was created in the 1970s by Lucien Hooper, a former Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst. Simply put, the indicator says that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the December low during the first quarter, it’s a warning sign for potential weakness over the balance of the year. The flipside is if it doesn’t, good times could be coming. Given the S&P 500 just went all of the first quarter without closing beneath the December 24 low, it’s worth taking a deeper dive. Sure enough, there appears to be some truth to this concept. “The December low indicator seems quite simple, but it has a tremendous track record,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When the S&P 500 stays above the December lows throughout the first quarter, the full year has been higher an incredible 34 out of the last 34 times, which bodes well for 2019.” In fact, this warning even worked last year, as it triggered in the first quarter of 2018 and eventually played out during the big fourth quarter sell-off. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, when the S&P 500 stays above the December lows in the first quarter, the full year does quite well.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.
Thursday 4.18.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.
Friday 4.19.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).
Friday 4.19.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).
Netflix, Inc. $351.14
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.56 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.94% with revenue increasing by 21.32%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% above its 200 day moving average of $336.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,925 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $23.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.84% with revenue decreasing by 14.11%. Short interest has decreased by 25.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $28.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 32,141 contracts of the $27.00 put and 32,059 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $18.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue decreasing by 22.15%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% above its 200 day moving average of $65.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 17,657 contracts of the $59.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:40 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.74 per share on revenue of $8.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.80% with revenue decreasing by 10.62%. Short interest has increased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $208.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,817 contracts of the $220.00 call and 5,555 contracts of the $195.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.59 per share on revenue of $59.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.09% with revenue increasing by 8.10%. Short interest has decreased by 1.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% below its 200 day moving average of $257.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,190 contracts of the $227.50 call and 3,732 contracts of the $227.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.46% with revenue decreasing by 1.89%. Short interest has decreased by 22.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.0% above its 200 day moving average of $134.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,510 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 1.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
Aphria Inc. (APHA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:05 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $41.11 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 26.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.1% from its open following the earnings release. On Thursday, April 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,595 contracts of the $9.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $14.84 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 88.16%. Short interest has decreased by 14.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.0% below its 200 day moving average of $2.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 27.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 12.59%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.8% below its 200 day moving average of $47.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $43.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
M&T Bank Corp (MTB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.29 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.90% with revenue decreasing by 2.65%. Short interest has decreased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% above its 200 day moving average of $165.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 841 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week ahead? Have a fantastic Sunday and a great trading week ahead to everyone here on StockMarket!
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019
Hey what's happening stocks! Good morning and happy Saturday to all of you on this subreddit. I hope everyone made out pretty nicely in the market last week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 15th, 2019.
Some optimistic corporate outlooks in the week ahead could lift the stock market to a record - (Source)
It’s now up to corporate America to reveal whether the U.S. economy simply hit a soft patch this winter, as many suspect, or is on the verge of falling into an even deeper rut. Earnings from a broad swath of industries, like financials, technology, transportation and consumer products roll out in the coming week as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway. According to Refinitiv, earnings are expected to decline 2.3 percent in the first negative quarter in three years, but it is business leaders’ comments on the future outlook that are even more important. Commentary and guidance is always a big deal, but this quarter it is critical. Analysts do not agree on whether the first quarter earnings season represents the trough, or even whether the second quarter will see a gain or decline in profit growth. At the same time, economic data, like March’s jobs report, are beginning to turn more positive, and first quarter growth has quickly gone from forecasts of nearly flattish back in January to now around 2%, on the back of better March releases. The economic data has been uneven, in part because of the government shutdown, but it has yet to prove the economy is back on track. “The market has been very sensitive to data that’s been picking up. The market is reflecting that, even though there’s talk of an earnings recession. What you don’t want is an earnings recession leading to an economic recession. If companies believe there’s a major downturn in revenue growth, they stop spending and ultimately they fire people and that leads to a recession,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. The stock market is also at an important inflection point, with the major indexes closing in on all-time highs. The S&P 500 pressed through 2,900 Friday, seen as a point of psychological resistance. The S&P ended the week at 2,907, for a weekly gain of 0.5%. The next target traders are watching is the closing high 2,930 on the S&P. The all-time high was an intraday 2,940, reached on Sept. 21. Earnings season got off to a good start with J.P. Morgan Chase’s quarterly earnings report Friday. CEO Jamie Dimon was very positive, saying the U.S. economy’s expansion “could go on for years.” “If you look at the American economy, the consumer is in good shape, balance sheets are in good shape, people are going back to the workforce, companies have plenty of capital,” Dimon told analysts during a conference call. J.P. Morgan stock rose sharply, after its record profits beat analysts’ expectations. “Positive guidance, that’s what the market needs. [The S&P] could cross 2,900, but then again it could pull back,” said Krosby, but she said the momentum has been pointing higher. “The market has basically been endorsing 2,900 and beyond.” Krosby said important upcoming economic reports include Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys Monday and Thursday respectively, for a current look at manufacturing activity in New York and the Mid-Atlantic region. There is also industrial production and retail sales Tuesday. “Jobs data was strong. Everybody was really negative on the economy, and now we’re getting pleasant surprises,” said Marc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist. The economy added 196,000 jobs in March, bringing the monthly average to 180,000 over the past three months, even with February’s shockingly low 33,000 payrolls. Chandler said industrial production and other data should show an improved trend over last month. As stocks have shaken off growth fears, bond yields have also moved higher. The 10-year Treasury note was yielding 2.55% Friday, well above the lows of 2.34% reached on March 28.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Typical April Trading: Mid-Month Surge Stronger Second Half
Over the recent 21 years April is the top-ranked month for DJIA. April ranks #3 S&P 500, #5 for NASDAQ, #2 for Russell 1000 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains over the period range from a low of 1.19% by NASDAQ to a respectable 2.29% by DJIA. The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. In fact the second half of April is stronger over the recent 21-year period. Early April trading is usually positive for the first 4 days then flattens off until mid-month. Then the market tends to surge from the tenth to the fifteenth trading days. DJIA tends to close out the month strongest with NASDAQ closing weakest. Except for DJIA weighed down by Boeing (BA), stocks are having an above average month so far, which is quite typical in Pre-Election years where April has tended to be even stronger.
Earlier today on our Twitter account, we retweeted a chart from Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal of inverted Jobless Claims versus the S&P 500. We have used this chart as an argument for the bullish case for the past several years. As we mentioned in a blog post this morning, Initial Jobless Claims came in earlier this week with a sizable drop off, down to 196K versus last week's revised 204K and expectations of 210K. This week's print was not only a new low for the current cycle, it is also the lowest reading since 1969. That sort of new low could be a good sign for equities. As shown in the chart below, claims and the S&P have mirrored each other since bottoming following the financial crisis. (In the chart, we have inverted claims on the right axis.) As the S&P 500 inches its way back towards all time highs, so has claims towards new lows. Additionally, with recent low prints for claims bucking what had previously appeared to be an upside trend reversal, the bullish case for the S&P 500 is growing.
The American Association of Individual Investors updated their weekly investor sentiment survey this morning and the results are very similar to the final days of February with bullish sentiment around 40%, bearish down near 20%, and neutral once again in the upper 30's. Up from 35.02% last week, bullish sentiment has crossed back over the 40% threshold; the first time it has done so since the previously mentioned week in February. While bullish sentiment is sitting a couple of points above the historical average, this is still several percentage points from reaching any sort of extreme level (more than one standard deviation above the aforementioned average). For that to happen, bullish sentiment would have to come in above 48.36%. If that occurs, then it could be a sign that investors are getting a little too optimistic.
Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, fell all the way back down to 20.38% this week, the lowest since its 20% reading on February 28th. That is around 10% less than the historical average for bearish sentiment. That is also at the lower end of the range bearish sentiment has stayed within in the past decade.
Neutral sentiment has still yet to have moved above or below the upper 30's coming in at 39.33% this week after falling from similar levels down to 36.71% last week. That is the third time in the past month that neutral sentiment has come in between 39% and 40%.
After the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 1998, the big question is: What happens next? We’ve already discussed why a good start to a year could lead to more gains (here and here), but today we will take a look at another potentially positive signal. The December Low Indicator was created in the 1970s by Lucien Hooper, a former Forbes columnist and Wall Street analyst. Simply put, the indicator says that if the S&P 500 closes beneath the December low during the first quarter, it’s a warning sign for potential weakness over the balance of the year. The flipside is if it doesn’t, good times could be coming. Given the S&P 500 just went all of the first quarter without closing beneath the December 24 low, it’s worth taking a deeper dive. Sure enough, there appears to be some truth to this concept. “The December low indicator seems quite simple, but it has a tremendous track record,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “When the S&P 500 stays above the December lows throughout the first quarter, the full year has been higher an incredible 34 out of the last 34 times, which bodes well for 2019.” In fact, this warning even worked last year, as it triggered in the first quarter of 2018 and eventually played out during the big fourth quarter sell-off. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, when the S&P 500 stays above the December lows in the first quarter, the full year does quite well.
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.
Thursday 4.18.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
N/A.
Friday 4.19.19 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).
Friday 4.19.19 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF GOOD FRIDAY).
Netflix, Inc. $351.14
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $4.49 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of approximately $0.56 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 10.94% with revenue increasing by 21.32%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.2% above its 200 day moving average of $336.83. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 7,925 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.9% move in recent quarters.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $23.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.67 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 4.84% with revenue decreasing by 14.11%. Short interest has decreased by 25.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 7.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.3% above its 200 day moving average of $28.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, April 9, 2019 there was some notable buying of 32,141 contracts of the $27.00 put and 32,059 contracts of the $32.00 call expiring on Friday, August 16, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
Citigroup, Inc. (C) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.78 per share on revenue of $18.71 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.84 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 58% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.95% with revenue decreasing by 22.15%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 20.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.2% above its 200 day moving average of $65.31. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, March 29, 2019 there was some notable buying of 17,657 contracts of the $59.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:40 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $4.74 per share on revenue of $8.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $5.21 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 60% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 31.80% with revenue decreasing by 10.62%. Short interest has increased by 9.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.1% below its 200 day moving average of $208.02. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 6,817 contracts of the $220.00 call and 5,555 contracts of the $195.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
UnitedHealth Group, Inc. (UNH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:55 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.59 per share on revenue of $59.66 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 18.09% with revenue increasing by 8.10%. Short interest has decreased by 1.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.4% below its 200 day moving average of $257.63. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 4,190 contracts of the $227.50 call and 3,732 contracts of the $227.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:40 AM ET on Tuesday, April 16, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.03 per share on revenue of $19.63 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.06 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.46% with revenue decreasing by 1.89%. Short interest has decreased by 22.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.0% above its 200 day moving average of $134.65. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, April 8, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,510 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 1.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
Aphria Inc. (APHA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:05 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $41.11 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has decreased by 26.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 57.1% from its open following the earnings release. On Thursday, April 11, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,595 contracts of the $9.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
ShiftPixy, Inc. (PIXY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $14.84 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 59% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 11.11% with revenue increasing by 88.16%. Short interest has decreased by 14.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 34.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 54.0% below its 200 day moving average of $2.61. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 27.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:45 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $2.70 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.68 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 12.59%. Short interest has decreased by 5.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 0.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.8% below its 200 day moving average of $47.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, April 10, 2019 there was some notable buying of 3,000 contracts of the $43.50 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 2.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.9% move in recent quarters.
M&T Bank Corp (MTB) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:35 AM ET on Monday, April 15, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.29 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.90% with revenue decreasing by 2.65%. Short interest has decreased by 2.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 5.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.6% above its 200 day moving average of $165.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, April 12, 2019 there was some notable buying of 841 contracts of the $165.00 put expiring on Thursday, April 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
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